Another week of NFL picks and predictions, another schedule packed full of games that might as well be considered toss-ups.
In Week 11, only two games opened with double-digit point spreads. So in terms of feeling comfortable with our picks, we like the Vikings over the Broncos, the 49ers over the Cardinals and the Raiders over the Bengals. Predicting the other 11 games with accuracy this week will require some luck.
MORE NFL WEEK 11:
Updated playoff picture | Power rankings
Even teams like the Saints (5 1/2 road favorites over the Bucs) and Chiefs (3 1/2-point favorites over the Chargers) can’t be considered easy picks, as both of those teams proved last week. New Orleans is one of four road favorites this week, joining Dallas, Buffalo and New England against Detroit, Miami and Philadelphia, respectively.
Here are our Week 11 NFL picks straight up, all the way through the Monday night game in Mexico City.
NFL picks, predictions for Week 11
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-2 1/2)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video
Week 11 begins with a doozie. The Steelers are surprisingly alive and well as playoff contenders, and the Browns are not as surprisingly clinging to a glimmer of hope in what’s getting close to a lost season. Cleveland and its home crowd will be fired up to beat its division rival in front of a national TV audience, but Pittsburgh has two key advantages. The Steelers expect to have James Conner back to face a struggling Browns rush defense, and the road team also has the better coach — by far.
Pick: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-10)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Minnesota’s win in Dallas last week was huge, and it signaled to the rest of the NFC that the Vikings are clicking and likely a fixture in the playoff picture moving forward. The Broncos and Brandon Allen found enough offense in their latest win to compliment their still-stingy scoring defense. The Vikings’ scoring defense, though, is better, and if Adam Thielen plays Sunday to help lift Minnesota’s offense, the home team should have no trouble rolling into its bye week with a win.
Pick: Vikings 26, Broncos 16
Dallas Cowboys (-3 1/2) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
In theory, Matthew Stafford playing in this game would at least make it more interesting, but his status probably is irrelevant as it pertains to the result. The Cowboys, armed with a solid defense themselves, have too much offense for the Lions’ awful defense. Even if Detroit pulls a Minnesota and does all it can to stop Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott will rip apart its secondary. As long as Dallas takes this road game in an early Sunday afternoon window seriously and doesn’t beat itself with turnovers or penalties, it should have no trouble maintaining its lead in the NFC East.
Pick: Cowboys 35, Lions 24
New Orleans Saints (-5 1/2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
This is a tricky spot for the Saints, who might have to face one of the NFL’s best passing offenses without top cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The Buccaneers also quietly have the league’s best rush defense in terms of yards allowed per game, meaning New Orleans could struggle to succeed with the run-heavy game plan it likes. The Saints got their divisional wake-up call last week, though, so as long as they’re still awake in Tampa Bay, they’ll get back on track thanks to efficient play from Drew Brees and inefficient play from Jameis Winston.
Pick: Saints 27, Buccaneers 23
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-5 1/2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Speaking of NFC South contenders, the Panthers are lucky the Falcons beat the Saints last week to minimize the impact of their loss to the Packers. Carolina’s struggling run defense is concerning, but Atlanta, 29th in the NFL in rushing, is not exactly a frightening opponent in that regard. As long as the Panthers have James Bradberry back healthy, they should be able to contain the Falcons’ passing game enough to outscore their rivals with heavy doses of Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel.
Pick: Panthers 30, Falcons 24
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3 1/2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts should get Jacoby Brissett back this week to match the return of Nick Foles in the Jaguars’ lineup, a vital development for an Indianapolis team that was embarrassed by Miami last week largely due to offensive ineptitude. With Marlon Mack against a shaky Jacksonville run defense, Indy should have an advantage. But nothing about this division can be considered predictable, save for all of its teams hovering around .500. A Jags win Sunday would make both teams 5-5.
Pick: Jaguars 26, Colts 21
New York Jets at Washington Redskins (-2 1/2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Redskins get the spread in their favor as the home team, but label us hesitant to trust a Washington squad that has scored an average of 9 points in its last three games. The Giants’ putrid defense provided the boost the Jets needed last week, and Sam Darnold, Le’Veon Bell and Co. get to face another weak unit in Week 11. On the strength of its rush defense, New York will separate itself from one of the few NFL teams that are worse than it is.
Pick: Jets 23, Redskins 20
Buffalo Bills (-5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
For at least one more game, any struggles for the Bills’ offense won’t matter. (These are literally the same words we used when we picked Buffalo to beat Miami back in Week 7. Sure enough, the Bills won 31-21.) Miami is on a random two-game winning streak going into this game, but the engineer of its wins, former Bill Ryan Fitzpatrick, will cool off against Buffalo’s third-ranked scoring defense. The 31st-ranked scoring defense in the NFL, meanwhile, will be exploited by the Bills once again.
Pick: Bills 28, Dolphins 17
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This is by far the best early Sunday afternoon game on the Week 11 schedule thanks to what should be a showcase of QB talent. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and the Texans’ Deshaun Watson are high on the list of NFL MVP candidates this season, and on top of that, both teams are leading their respective divisions as the AFC playoff picture becomes more relevant. Baltimore has the NFL’s best rushing offense, but Houston is not far behind. The Texans are the fresher team coming off their bye, which will give them the slight edge they need in a close game.
Pick: Texans 28, Ravens 26
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-13 1/2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
San Francisco messed around and almost lost in Arizona on Halloween night a couple weeks ago. Lesson learned. The Cardinals will still make their share of plays, but the 49ers will be better prepared on defense this time while their offense unloads on the NFL’s second worst defense in terms of yards allowed per game. Season sweep for San Fran complete.
Pick: 49ers 34, Cardinals 24
New England Patriots (-3 1/2) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET p.m. ET, CBS
These teams are trending in opposite directions, with the Patriots having lost against their first legit opponent a couple weeks ago and the Eagles being on a two-game winning streak. They’re also both coming off a bye, and we all know what happened the last time Philadelphia and New England met after two weeks of preparation. Of course, none of that will matter since the Patriots still have NFL’s best scoring defense statistically and the Eagles rank in the bottom half of the league.
Pick: Patriots 20, Eagles 17
Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (-10)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
We think — think — the Bengals are the only team in the NFL with which we can feel comfortable while making picks. Cincinnati, especially with Andy Dalton on the bench, is easily the worst team in a season that features an unusual amount of very bad teams. The Raiders, on the other hand, are refreshingly interesting and suddenly legit contenders for an AFC playoff spot. Expect another big game from Josh Jacobs, this time against the NFL’s worst rush defense.
Pick: Raiders 31, Bengals 20
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Before the season, anybody could have reasonably stated this Week 11 matchup was a preview of a playoff game in the NFC. It technically still could be, but neither the Bears nor the Rams inspire much optimism. The Bears finally showed some signs of offensive life in their win over the Lions last week, but the Rams, despite some struggles of their own, still have the more trustworthy attack. LA’s defense will get back on track, and coach Sean McVay will scheme his way to enough points for a win.
Pick: Rams 24, Bears 17
Kansas City Chiefs (-3 1/2) vs. Los Angeles Chargers in Mexico City
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Let’s try this again. The field issues that forced Mexico City’s game to move to LA last year reportedly won’t resurface, so fans at Estadio Azteca finally will get their Patrick Mahomes show. Speaking of resurfacing, will the old Philip Rivers eventually show up this season? The Chargers are far from done as contenders in the AFC, but they’ll trend that way if their QB’s struggles continue. They’ll need big numbers from him Monday in order to keep up with the Chiefs.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Chargers 26
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