USC (3-2) travels to No. 10 Notre Dame (5-0) for a primetime rivalry matchup at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday in South Bend, Ind.
The Trojans are coming off a bye week and are trying to turn the heat down on coach Clay Helton. Injuries at quarterback have led to an up-and-down season, and the best way to silence the critics would be to win in South Bend for the first time since 2011.
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Notre Dame has one loss, and in order to stay in the College Football Playoff conversation, the Irish are going to have to put up big numbers in high-visibility games. This is one of those opportunities for Ian Book, who has played lights-out at home this season.
Notre Dame-USC might be a Page 2 game this weekend, but it’s still a rivalry and anything can happen. With that in mind, here’s everything you need for Saturday’s matchup between the Irish and Trojans:
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USC vs. Notre Dame odds
Spread: Notre Dame -11
Point total: 56.5
Moneyline: Notre Dame -110, USC -110
Notre Dame opened as an 11-point favorite at Sportsbook Review, and 54 percent of the wagering has come in favor of the Irish.
USC vs. Notre Dame all-time series
Notre Dame leads the all-time series 48-37-5. The Irish are 12-6-2 in this game when they are the only team that is ranked.
Three trends to know
— The Irish have won the last two meetings by an average of 21 points per game. Brian Kelly is 6-3 against USC. That includes a 3-1 record at home against the Trojans.
— Notre Dame is 4-1 against the spread this season, but that includes a perfect 3-0 against-the-spread mark at home.
— Since Helton took over as full-time coach in 2016, USC is 3-9 against the spread as an underdog and 1-7 against the spread as a road underdog.
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Three things to watch
Ian Book
We mentioned Book’s superlative play at home, and he averages 262 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in three home games. Granted, that’s against New Mexico, Virginia and Bowling Green, but USC has allowed 236.4 passing yards per game through the air and has just two interceptions. Book will cash in against that.
USC quarterbacks
It’s uncertain whether Kedon Slovis or Matt Fink will start after the former was cleared from a concussion, but they will have a challenge against a Notre Dame pass defense that allows 183.6 yards per game and has surrendered just three touchdowns. USC must get 6-4 receiver Michael Pittman — the hero of the Utah upset who has scored in the Trojans’ last three games — involved early against a tough Notre Dame secondary.
Can USC run the ball?
Over their last two meetings, USC has 55 rushing attempts for 170 yards — an average of 3.1 yards per carry — against the Irish. If that happens again, then this game will be over quickly. The Trojans have to establish a ground game to control the clock, and it’s on Vavae Malepeai and Stephen Carr — a tough inside runner who averages 6.1 yards per carry – to make that happen. Carr might be involved more than usual early.
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Stat that matters
Notre Dame is second nationally in turnover margin at plus-10. The Irish have created 14 turnovers with their defense while only losing four. USC, meanwhile, is tied at No. 122 in the same category at minus-7. That won’t fly on the road.
USC vs. Notre Dame prediction
Notre Dame will expose that turnover problem. USC could play spirited in the first half, much like Tennessee against Georgia last week, but reality will set in during the second half. Tony Jones Jr. breaks the game open with a few early touchdowns, and the Irish pour it on in the second half. What does that mean for Helton? It might come down to how much Notre Dame tacks on.
Notre Dame 42, USC 20