Once again, Miami’s opponent is the most popular survivor pool pick of the week, but are the Chargers the right pick for your specific football pool? The experts from TeamRankings are here to break down the numbers on the five most popular Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks, which includes the Chargers, Rams, Colts, Chiefs, and Ravens.
As we always point out, sometimes a very large concentration of picks on a single team, like the Chargers this week, can open up a great opportunity to fade the public and root for an upset to knock out the majority of your opponents.
More From TeamRankings:
Football Pick ’em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Before we get into this week’s survivor pool analysis, we have to remind you that TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in survivor pools. Since 2017, TeamRankings subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings. Check out their NFL survivor pool picks, football pick ’em contest picks, and NFL betting picks.
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Last week’s survivor pick analysis
It was a chalk-heavy Week 3 in NFL survivor pools. The Cowboys and Patriots were hugely popular, and both won easily. The rest of the most popular options also prevailed, and in the end, only a few minor upsets eliminated entries. Tampa Bay (two-percent picked by the public), Seattle (1.4 percent), and Philadelphia (1.2 percent) represented the biggest public eliminations.
Overall, both the public and TeamRankings subscriber pick recommendations via our NFL Survivor Picks product survived at an extremely high 95-percent rate last week. If you combine all three weeks so far, you would expect that about 70 percent of all public entries are still alive heading into Week 4. In comparison, around 81 percent of all TR pick recommendations have survived, a difference of 11 percent in survival rate so far for our premium subscribers.
WEEK 4 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Tips, Analysis
Week 4 features the two Los Angeles teams in the survivor spotlight. The Chargers win the scheduling lottery this week by drawing the Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Rams get their first real survivor-caliber matchup when they host Tampa Bay after playing two road games and a home game against the Saints.
Neither of the L.A. teams have been heavily used by the public so far this season. The Chargers had 10-percent pick popularity in Week 1, but other than that, neither team has been used by more than one percent of survivor pool entries in any week so far. You can expect that most entries in your pool have both teams as available options. Without further ado, let’s analyze the five most popular survivor picks for 2019 Week 4.
Los Angeles Chargers (at Miami Dolphins)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 46%
Point Spread: -16.5
Miami continues to “break” survivor pools so far in 2019. The Dolphins are currently at least 8.6 points worse than every other NFL team in our predictive ratings, making them one of the safest options to play against each week no matter the opponent. In fact, there are only three weeks when picking against the Dolphins is not the current top weekly win odds option for the rest of the year. The first is next week when they have a bye. The others are at home against Washington (Week 6) and Cincinnati (Week 16).
When Miami plays a decent team, it becomes even more extreme. The Chargers, despite their two consecutive close losses, are the clear safest play this week as 16.5-point favorites in the betting markets. The counterpoint is that the Chargers are not as safe as Dallas or New England were last week and have a bigger chance of losing on the road (our models estimate it’s 10 percent). As a result, the Chargers’ pick popularity is an important consideration here, and if it continues to trend higher (or you expect it to be above 50 percent in your pool), it would increase the appeal of a potential contrarian pick this week.
You also have to consider that Miami’s presence as a great pick-against option in most weeks reduces the future value of decent teams like the Chargers when they are not playing the Dolphins. The Chargers only have one other week where they look like a top three survivor option (Week 16 against the Raiders). They are, though, a decent contrarian option next week playing Denver at home, when Miami is on bye. New England is the safest option next week against Washington, but the Patriots already have high usage and also have better future weeks, as well. After the Patriots, there are a handful of other matchups that are only slightly safer than the Chargers in Week 5.
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Tampa Bay)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 28%
Point Spread: -10
The Rams have been used by less than two percent of entries so far in 2019, and the public appears eager to use them this week.
However, the drop-off from the Chargers to the Rams, in terms of safety, is not insignificant. Our models have the Chargers at 90-percent win odds versus 82-percent win odds for the Rams. The Rams’ popularity, meanwhile, is somewhat high for a “second most popular option” in a given week. Philadelphia drew 22 percent of public picks as the second option in Week 1 with similar win odds to the Rams this week. Baltimore was at 26 percent in Week 2 with better win odds, and the Patriots were at only 14 percent last week as a significantly safer favorite than the Rams are this week.
The Rams do not have great future value for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. That largely has to do with when their best future matchups occur. The Rams look like they will be favored in almost every remaining game, but the weeks where they are likely to be favored by the most are also weeks with plenty of other good-looking options. So, in terms of when they are the safest option relative to the rest of the weekly slate, this week does rank highly and makes the Rams a more attractive team to use.
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Indianapolis Colts (vs. Oakland Raiders)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 7%
Point Spread: -7
Just over a quarter of all survivor entries are playing against the Los Angeles duo this week and going with less popular but also riskier options. Of those, the Colts are the most popular choice at seven percent of entries. It’s easy to see why Indianapolis would be the most popular choice of that next group. They draw a home matchup with Oakland where they are a decent favorite (our models give them a 71-percent chance of winning). Indianapolis has not been used much, if at all, in survivor pools so far this year. So, compared to other options, they likely are more available, too.
Finally, Indy isn’t a great survivor option in most future weeks. That said, they do play Miami at home in Week 10 and are clearly the top choice that week in terms of survival right now. Our projections give the Colts a 94-percent chance of victory in Week 10, and they do not currently project with more than 71-percent win odds in any other matchup. The Colts are likely to be a hugely popular choice that week, so you have to consider whether you want to have them available that week or go the contrarian route now.
Kansas City Chiefs (at Detroit Lions)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 5%
Point Spread: -6.5
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The Chiefs make the list at five-percent popularity in their matchup against the 2-0-1 Lions on the road. They have a similar safety profile to several other teams around them, and our models give them a 72-percent chance of winning. The question if you use the Chiefs is: “Why this week?”, especially when they are only a 6.5-point favorite and are a much better option in other weeks.
They have the second-highest future value of any NFL team and are particularly attractive in Weeks 13 and 15. In Week 15, for example, they could set up as a nice alternative to everyone who will be using the Giants against the Dolphins that week. A team like Kansas City will have its public popularity held down because so many entries will have used them by then, potentially making them extremely valuable as a high win-odds option at home against Denver.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 3%
Point Spread: -7
In a vacuum, using Baltimore looks pretty compelling as a non-Chargers pick this week because their popularity is lower than other options like the Chiefs, Colts, and Rams. Our models are also higher than the betting market on Baltimore’s chances this week, giving them the third-highest win odds at 78 percent (the market has them at 73 percent, similar to New England and Indianapolis), but either way, they are among the safest choices once you get past the Chargers and Rams.
Baltimore has already been used by approximately 40 percent of entries because they were a popular choice in both Weeks 1 and 2, which does limit how many entries even have the option of using them. However, they also have decent future value, including in Week 6, when they host Cincinnati and look like one of the best options, particularly if you want to save New England for a different week.
Get our Week 4 Survivor Pool pick recommendation
The teams above are the most popular survivor picks of Week 4, but that doesn’t mean one of them is the best pick for you. Your best NFL Week 4 survivor pick is the one that offers the ideal balance of safety, pick popularity, and future value for your specific pool.
We built our NFL Survivor Picks tools to do all of the necessary number crunching to figure out the best pick(s) for your pool. You simply answer a few questions about your survivor pool’s size and rules, and enter the teams you’ve picked so far. Then, it provides customized Week 4 pick recommendations based on the latest matchup data, Vegas odds and public picking trends.
The result? Since 2017, on average, more than 30 percent of our subscribers have reported winning a survivor pool every year. We invite you to give the product a try for free, and good luck in your survivor pools in Week 4!
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