Senate Republicans believe they are on the cusp of increasing their majority in the midterm elections despite historic headwinds that seem likely to cost the GOP control of the House.
Republicans believe they have growing momentum to pick up seats in North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana, while races in Montana and Florida remain tight.
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The GOP is feeling more bullish about not losing any of their own incumbents up for reelection, a significant turnaround from earlier in the cycle when Nevada Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerOn The Trail: Democrats plan to hammer Trump on Social Security, Medicare Lobbying World Democrats spend big to put Senate in play MORE was seen as possibly the most endangered Senate incumbent standing.
Surprises are still possible on Tuesday in a quickly changing environment.
Here’s a look at the Senate seats more likely to flip:
North Dakota
Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn Heitkamp70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents Susan Collins set to play pivotal role in impeachment drama Pro-trade group launches media buy as Trump and Democrats near deal on new NAFTA MORE (D-N.D.) is viewed as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the final weeks before the midterm elections, as she’s trailed behind Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerRepublicans prepare to punt on next COVID-19 relief bill GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police Trump tweets spark fresh headache for Republicans MORE (R-N.D.) in the polls.
Democrats aren’t counting Heitkamp out after she squeaked out a victory in 2012. They argue that Heitkamp still has a path if she can hit her targets in the eastern part of the state, win over moderates and turn out Native American voters.
The election will come less than a week after tribes unsuccessfully challenged a voter ID law that requires a current address for the identification to be valid. Native Americans strongly backed Heitkamp in 2012.
Though recent polls have shown a slight tightening in the race, Heitkamp is behind in the polls by an average of more than 11 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics.
The race is being handicapped by election watchers as leaning toward Republicans. And President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE, in a sign that Republicans are feeling good about the state, isn’t expected to make a campaign stop in the final days before the election.
Missouri
Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillMissouri county issues travel advisory for Lake of the Ozarks after Memorial Day parties Senate faces protracted floor fight over judges amid pandemic safety concerns Amash on eyeing presidential bid: ‘Millions of Americans’ want someone other than Trump, Biden MORE (D-Mo.) has been a top target since the start of the cycle, with Republicans convinced they would have beaten her in 2012 if her GOP opponent, then-Rep. Todd Akin (Mo.), hadn’t sparked a political firestorm by saying that female bodies have a way of preventing pregnancy from “legitimate rape.”
But she’s managed to keep her race close despite Trump winning her state by roughly 15 percentage points in 2016.
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Several polls in the final month before the midterms, including a Fox News poll released last week, have shown the race between McCaskill and Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) locked in a tie. Others have Hawley with a slight lead but well within the margin of error.
McCaskill has tried to align herself with Trump and distance herself from the more progressive elements in her party, telling Fox News that she isn’t one of those “crazy Democrats” and that she “100 percent” supports Trump blocking a migrant caravan from entering the country.
But her strategy earned her no reprieve from Trump, who said during a rally in Missouri days before the midterms that the voters would “retire far-left Democrat Claire McCaskill.”
Indiana
Democratic Sen. Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyEx-Sen. Joe Donnelly endorses Biden Lobbying world 70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents MORE (Ind.) is trying to hold on to his seat in a state Trump won by roughly 16 points in 2016 and where he is the lone Democrat to hold a statewide office.
Donnelly has tried to tie himself to Trump, including becoming the first Democratic senator to open the door to considering Trump’s controversial effort to change who qualifies for birthright citizenship.
A Fox News Poll showed Donnelly with a 7-point lead over businessman Mike Braun. But the race remains rated a toss-up, with Republicans viewing it, Missouri and North Dakota as their best chances to pick up seats currently held by Democrats.
Arizona
Arizona is emerging as Democrats’ best shot to flip a Republican-held seat in an otherwise brutal Senate midterm map.
Republicans hoped that when Sen. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeGOP lawmakers stick to Trump amid new criticism Kelly holds double-digit lead over McSally in Arizona: poll Trump asserts his power over Republicans MORE (R-Ariz.), a frequent critic of the president, announced his retirement last year it would give the party a better shot at protecting the Senate seat.
But while Republicans got the candidate they wanted when Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyGOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police No evidence of unauthorized data transfers by top Chinese drone manufacturer: study Senate Democratic campaign arm launches online hub ahead of November MORE (R-Ariz.) managed to survive a brutal primary election, she’s remained locked in a tight battle with Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.).
Unlike in Nevada, where Democrats are trying to unseat an incumbent, the open race appears to be giving Sinema and her party an easier, but still heavy, lift.
Sinema is leading in the race on average by a percentage point, according to RealClearPolitics. And a Fox News poll released last week had the race locked in a tie.
Nevada
Heller has been a top target since the start of the 2018 cycle as the only Senate Republican running for reelection in a state won by Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE.
But he’s managed to stay in his race against Rep. Jacky RosenJacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenThe Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Mnuchin sees ‘strong likelihood’ of another relief package; Warner says some businesses ‘may not come back’ at The Hill’s Advancing America’s Economy summit The Hill’s Coronavirus Report: CDC Director Redfield responds to Navarro criticism; Mnuchin and Powell brief Senate panel Hillicon Valley: Experts raise security concerns about online voting | Musk finds supporter in Trump | Officials warn that Chinese hackers targeting COVID-19 research groups MORE (D-Nev.) despite being targeted by more than $33.5 million in negative spending from outside groups.
Heller has stuck closely to Trump as he’s searched for a path to victory in the battleground state, and RealClearPolitics shows he’s leading by 2 percentage points on average.
But, in a potential sign of trouble for Heller, Democrats are leading in the state’s early voting tally by roughly 3.5 percent, which will put pressure on the GOP senator to drive up his margin among independents on Tuesday. And after predicting a Heller victory in 2012, Jon Ralston, a veteran Nevada political observer, said on Sunday he believes Heller will lose this year.
Montana
How close the race in Montana is during the waning days of the 2018 election cycle depends on which party you ask.
Democrats, while acknowledging the race is close, are quick to note Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterSenate confirms Trump’s watchdog for coronavirus funds Montana barrels toward blockbuster Senate fight The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip MORE (D-Mont.) has maintained a steady lead in the polls for weeks despite months of battering by Trump and Donald Trump Jr.Don John TrumpTrump Jr. calls elderly supporter who was assaulted Trump Jr. hits Howard Stern for going ‘establishment,’ ‘acting like Hillary’ Trump Jr., GOP senator lash out at Facebook for taking down protest pages on stay-at-home orders MORE
Tester, according to RealClearPolitics, has a more than 4-point lead on average. But other recent polls show the race being as narrow as 2 or 3 percentage points, putting it within the margin of error.
Republicans are more bullish, believing the Tester-Trump feud has moved the race their way. And Republicans are hoping that a last-minute visit by Trump, who remains deeply popular in the state, will help vault Matt Rosendale into the lead just in time for Tuesday.
Florida
Democrats are feeling bullish about Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonNASA, SpaceX and the private-public partnership that caused the flight of the Crew Dragon Lobbying world The most expensive congressional races of the last decade MORE’s chances in Florida despite Gov. Rick Scott having gone up with TV ads months before Nelson and pouring more than $63 million into his race to defeat the incumbent.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Friday pointed to early Republican optimism about the race as an example of a “GOP talking point busts,” noting that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote GOP senator to try to reverse requirement that Pentagon remove Confederate names from bases No, ‘blue states’ do not bail out ‘red states’ MORE’s (R-Ky.) prediction that Democrats would leave Nelson “for dead” by mid-September didn’t pan out.
Democrats point to two main factors as the reason for their optimism: The composition of Florida, which has the reputation as a swing state, and the excitement over Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee.
Nelson only has a narrow 2-point lead in the race according to several polls, but FiveThirtyEight gives him a 2-in-3 chance of keeping the seat.
West Virginia
Sen. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinTrump administration seeks to use global aid for nuclear projects Shelley Moore Capito wins Senate primary West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice wins GOP gubernatorial primary MORE was initially viewed as one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents up for reelection in a state won by Trump by roughly 42 points — his biggest margin of victory in 2016.
But while many of his red-state colleagues have seesawed in and out of front-runner status in their respective races, Manchin has maintained a solid lead over Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in public polling in the state over for weeks.
Strategists in both parties attribute his advantage to his gifts as a retail politician and name ID in a state where he served as governor before joining the Senate.
Republicans are hoping a final visit by Trump to the state could provide Morrisey with momentum heading into election day.
But The Washington Post reported that the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with McConnell, is no longer airing television advertisements in the Mountain State.
Tennessee
Democrats’ hopes of picking up retiring GOP Sen. Bob CorkerRobert (Bob) Phillips CorkerGOP lawmakers stick to Trump amid new criticism Trump asserts his power over Republicans Romney is only GOP senator not on new White House coronavirus task force MORE’s Senate seat appear to be fading.
Former Gov. Phil Bredesen, like other red-state Democrats, has played up his support for border security as Trump has hammered on the issue in the closing days of the campaign, even releasing an ad touting his decision to send military personnel to the border.
But GOP Rep. Marsha BlackburnMarsha BlackburnGOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police GOP senators dodge on treatment of White House protesters Five things to know about Trump’s legal power under the Insurrection Act MORE (Tenn.) has led in all but one recent public poll, and two polls released during the final week of the election have her with an 8-point and 9-point lead, respectively.
Texas
Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police MORE’s race against Rep. Beto O’Rourke (R-Texas) has captured the national spotlight, dominating media coverage and raking in historic levels of fundraising for a Senate fight in a deeply red state like Texas.
Democrats point to the fact that O’Rourke is getting targeted with roughly $7.7 million in negative outside group spending as a sign that they’ve put Republicans on defense in what could have been a sleeper Senate race.
But national attention aside, Cruz has maintained a steady, high single-digit lead in the polls, and Republicans believe the fundamentals of the conservative state — which hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1988 — will allow Cruz to win on Tuesday.
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