When the Packers travel to face the 49ers in Sunday’s NFC championship game (6:40 p.m. ET, Fox), a trip to Super Bowl 54 in Miami will be on the line. Green Bay defeated one NFC West team, Seattle, in the divisional playoffs and needs to knock off one more, No. 1 seed San Francisco, as the No. 2 seed.
When the teams met in Week 12 in Levi’s Stadium, the 49ers dominated the Nov. 24 Sunday night matchup, leading 23-0 at halftime on the way to a 37-8 rout. The Packers held off the Seahawks 28-23 in the divisional round. The 49ers smashed the Vikings 27-10 last Saturday in the same round.
Here’s everything to know about betting on Packers vs. 49ers in the NFL playoffs, including updated odds, trends and our expert’s prediction for the NFC championship game.
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Packers vs. 49ers odds for NFC championship game
Spread: 49ers by 7.5
Point total: 46
Odds: Packers -110, 49ers -110
The 49ers have been more than touchdown favorites since the initial lines were set. Although the Packers played well last week, the 49ers played better and rolled in the first meeting. The point total has been trending slightly downward all week.
Packers vs. 49ers all-time series
The Packers lead the series 36-31-2. But the 49ers have won four of the past six games in the rivalry going back to 2012. That includes two playoff games, 23-20 at Lambeau Field in 2014 and 45-31 in San Francisco in 2013. Before the Week 12 meeting, the Packers won in 2018, 33-30 at home.
Three trends to know
— The Packers and 49ers have both covered in 10 of their 17 games. 52 percent of spread bettors like the 49ers. 67 percent of moneyline bettors like the Packers straight up.
— The Packers saw only 7 of their games go over the point total. The 49ers had only 8 games go over. 59 percent of bettors like the total to go over here.
— The Packers are 2-3 against the spread in the past five games, including failing to cover in the past two games, both wins. The 49ers have covered in five of their past seven games, including in two consecutive wins.
Three things to watch
Matt LaFleur vs. Kyle Shanahan
LaFleur and Shanahan got to the Super Bowl together after the 2016 season with the Falcons, when Shanahan was offensive coordinator and LaFleur was quarterbacks coach. They both won their first career playoff games as head coaches last week. Matt’s brother, Mike LaFleur, serves as the passing game coordinator for Shanahan with the 49ers. The teams’ schemes have some similarities, ones that defensive coordinators Mike Pettine and Robert Saleh will try to exploit.
Davante Adams vs. the 49ers’ secondary
Adams, Aaron Rodgers’ dominant go-to wide receiver, had a monster game against the Seahawks, catching 8 passes for 160 yards and two TDs. The 49ers’ secondary is better and deeper, led by Richard Sherman, who is a shutdown corner still but doesn’t travel. But cornerback Emmanuel Mosley played very well last week after Ahkello Witherspoon was burned for a long TD by the Vikings’ Stefon Diggs. The Packers did a great job to scheme Adams open with different wrinkles, including three tight-end sets with him and mixing up routes from the line.
George Kittle vs. the Packers’ everyone
The 49ers’ tight end smashed the Packers in the first meeting, catching 6 passes for 129 yards, including a 61-yard backbreaking TD. The Packers have struggled to cover the position for much of the season, and between their linebackers and safeties, have several defenders who can wilt trying to stop him. Kittle was quiet against the Vikings with 3 catches for 16 yards and should be itching to explode in a much better matchup.
Stat that matters
49ers running back Tevin Coleman averaged 67.3 yards per scrimmage in home games during the regular season. totaling 471 yards and 6 TDs in 7 games. Coleman ran 22 times for 105 yards and 2 TDs against the Vikings last week. The Packers gave up just shy of 150 yards per game from scrimmage to backs during the regular season. Coleman and Rahseem Mostert should be fed often again in the running game, with a good chance that both will be more involved the passing game. That duo combined for 116 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs in the first meeting.
Packers vs. 49ers prediction
The Packers will find some more offensive answers in relation to the Week 12 game as Rodgers will use Adams and others to have a more effective passing game. But the problem is, that production will come more when Green Bay is trailing big in the second half. That’s because the 49ers’ defense is improved overall and the Packers’ defense is facing an even more dynamic, balanced and explosive 49ers’ offense. Jimmy Garoppolo, Kittle, Coleman and Mostert will get plenty of help to rack up yardage and points, creating a hole from which Rodgers can’t dig out the Packers.
49ers 42, Packers 24