NFL playoff history suggests what went “wrong” in the wild-card weekend usually goes right in the divisional round. Although three of the four teams that advanced were road teams, don’t buy into that momentum too much with superior opponents at rest waiting for them at home after a bye.
Therefore, last Sunday and Saturday were rough for picks and predictions, both straight up and against the spread. The only thing we can do is try harder to be better picking the final four-game slate of the 2019-20 season.
Without further ado, here’s our latest fearless forecast for upcoming NFL results. All odds are courtesy of SportsInsider.com.
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NFL playoff picks, predictions against spread for divisional games
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Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-6 1/2)
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET, NBC
The Vikings have been a gritty road team all season, but their overtime upset of the Saints marked their first victory over a winning team. The 49ers present them a more explosive, versatile offense and a defense that’s good on every level. Minnesota will have some rushing success in San Francisco with a lot more Dalvin Cook. But the Niners’ back seven is strong, deep and now healthier in coverage, and it operates behind a relentless pass rush.
Kirk Cousins won’t be able to hit on the big pass plays the Vikings need, and Jimmy Garoppolo, helped by many wrinkles involving his backs, receivers and tight end George Kittle, will have more success throwing downfield. The 49ers will give the Vikings multiple looks with speed and quickness, keeping Garoppolo mostly clean. Their close, big-game experience and home-field advantage will pay off nicely as they take control in the second half.
Pick: 49ers win 28-20 and cover the spread.
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Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-9)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, CBS
The Titans’ game plan is evident: Run Derrick Henry as hard and as much as possible to wear down the Ravens’ defense, finish drives, work the clock and keep Lamar Jackson off the field. The problem is, the Ravens are capable of flipping that script with Jackson and Mark Ingram to limit the opportunities for Henry and Ryan Tannehill. Jackson will force the Titans into uncomfortable situations with his running. Baltimore’s offensive line will win the battle against Tennessee’s front to facilitate everything, including downfield shots to wide receiver Marquise Brown and tight end Mark Andrews.
The Ravens will contain Henry and force Tannehill to throw more one-dimensionally than he would like against a deep secondary, inside and out. The Ravens, who will protect both their QB and the ball, have dominated too much through 12 straight victories to trip up at home against the No. 6 seed.
Pick: Ravens win 30-17 and cover the spread.
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Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9 1/2)
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Texans used a strong ball-control game plan to defeat the Chiefs 31-24 in the teams’ regular-season matchup at Arrowhead Stadium back in October. They had the ideal power rushing attack working to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, nearly doubling up in time of possession. The Chiefs remain vulnerable against the run, but their all-around defense has been much improved since that Week 6 loss.
The Texans don’t have coverage answers for Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, and Mahomes will be way more efficient passing than Josh Allen was against Houston in the wild-card round. On the flip side, look for former Texan Tyrann Mathieu to make a big play against Deshaun Watson to punch Kansas City’s ticket to a second straight AFC championship game.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-14 and cover the spread.
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Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-4)
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET, Fox
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The Seahawks grinded their way to victory against the Eagles, overcoming their injury-based attrition better than their opponents did. The Packers are mostly healthy and well rested. Aaron Rodgers had an up-and-down season, more steady than spectacular. But the Seahawks’ pass rush will be limited in its chances to get to the QB, and they also can’t cover Davante Adams or Aaron Jones.
Seattle will counter with plenty of Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer on the ground to set up Russell Wilson’s downfield passing to his big-play wide receivers, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Rodgers and Wilson will get into a passing duel in Wisconsin, with Rodgers finding familiar magic with a game-winning field goal drive.
Pick: Packers win 30-27 but fail to cover the spread.
Stats of the Week:
Wild-card record straight up: 1-3
Wild-card record against the spread: 2-1
Season record straight up: 171-88
Season record against the spread: 136-114