Last week was a solid rebound week for Sporting News’ NFL prognostications. Now it’s time to parlay that into a strong Week 17 of picks and predictions against the spread.
This is it. This is the end of the 2019 regular season, one last chance to get 16 games right (or wrong) before the playoffs begin. Let’s do this and do it well.
Without further ado, here’s our latest fearless forecast for upcoming NFL results. All odds are courtesy of SportsInsider.com.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds & betting trends from Sports Insider
NFL Week 17 picks, predictions against the spread
Game of the Week: San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The 49ers and Seahawks have been hit with several injuries in the second half of the season. The 49ers are getting healthier defensively and there’s been limited damage offensively. The Seahawks are running out of trusted bodies at key positions, including running back, defensive end and cornerback. Jimmy Garoppolo has been finding some clutch play in the fourth quarter, including opposite Russell Wilson during the overtime loss in San Francisco. The momentum and well-roundedness are with the visitors, who will split the season series, win the NFC West and grab the top seed to cap their breakout year before a Super Bowl run.
Pick: 49ers win 27-20.
Upset of the Week: New York Giants (+4 1/2) over Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The NFC East is due to have one more twist before its season as the NFL’s weakest division ends. Here it is. The Giants took the Eagles to overtime in Philadelphia with Eli Manning, and yes, Daniel Jones is a quarterback upgrade. Saquon Barkley is red-hot. The Eagles might not have Zach Ertz, and their compressed offense will give the Giants’ defense another break. Their secondary is hurting again and can’t handle the Giants’ sudden wideout depth. The Giants, of all teams, will end up helping the Cowboys as they play hard, possibly one last time, for Pat Shurmur.
Pick: Giants win 23-20.
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Lock of the Week: Green Bay Packers (-9 1/2) over Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Packers were our upset pick against the Vikings. They want to keep pushing for NFC playoff position, and the Lions have become a mess. Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams will do whatever they want in Ford Field, while David Blough will be overwhelmed by Green Bay’s edge rush and coverage.
Pick: Packers win 34-10 and cover the spread.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bears seem to be going through the motions offensively, and their defense is trying its best to keep things together during an injury-riddled season. The Vikings want to enter the playoffs on a high in front of a tough first-round matchup with the division out of reach. They also won’t be happy that the Bears, who beat them earlier, kept them shy of taking the NFC North.
Pick: Vikings win 23-13 and cover the spread.
New Orleans Saints (-13) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Saints will be playing for seeding and will remember the Panthers gave them a scare in the Superdome earlier this season. The Panthers have pretty much gone into free-fall with overmatched run defense and now not much of an offense beyond Christian McCaffrey. Will Grier will struggle again, and Drew Brees will have an easy day outdoors doing plenty of handing off.
Pick: Saints win 27-10 and cover the spread.
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Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chiefs will be playing to keep the No. 3 seed, so they wil stay on the gas. That’s not an insignificant status, because it means drawing a much weaker wild-card opponent in the first round instead of the Bills. There’s also an outside shot they can go to No. 2 and get a bye. The Chargers will keep making mistakes on both sides of the ball to embody their dysfunctional drop from a 2018 playoff team. Kansas City’s defense is starting to take much of the weight off Patrick Mahomes’ back, and it will continue in Week 17.
Pick: Chiefs win 24-17 but fail to cover the spread.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1 1/2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Jets haven’t been good on the road this season, and they remain haunted by blowing their Week 1 home game against the Bills, which set the tone for them to fade into the muddled middle and provide the springboard for Buffalo to be the AFC East wild-card entrant, instead. The Bills will be more concerned about resting key players so they are at their healthiest to face either the Chiefs or the Texans on the road in the playoff opener. Adam Gase will gets the Jets to make their record look a little better and carry some real promise into 2020.
Pick: Jets win 20-13.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Falcons got destroyed by the Buccaneers at home, but now their defense doesn’t need to deal with Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. The Falcons are playing better offense now, too, minus Calvin Ridley but with Julio Jones, Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman all back balling out together around Matt Ryan. Atlanta will do right by Dan Quinn one more time to pull even with Tampa Bay for second place in the NFC South.
Pick: Falcons win 24-20.
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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-15 1/2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Dolphins have been responding well to Brian Flores and Ryan Fitzpatrick to be less of a joke. The Patriots last week found a few more offensive answers with their running and passing games, and Bill Belichick’s defense has found its championship groove again. New England can’t be the AFC’s No.1 seed, but it knows things don’t end up well in the playoffs when it’s not at least No. 2 with a bye.
Pick: Patriots win 27-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Cleveland Browns (-2 1/2) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bengals have clinched the top draft pick, and the Browns have confirmed their 2019 season is a big bust. The Browns want to prove they have some form and function left. They should feed Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt plenty to keep this from becoming a forced passing game, something that hasn’t worked out as well as expected. Andy Dalton put up his last stand to remain the quarterback in Cincinnati, but this is the final game before the Joe Burrow era. Baker Mayfield will be motivated to shake off a sophomore slump with something good for Year 3.
Pick: Browns win 30-23 and cover the spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2 1/2) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens are home underdogs because many key players won’t be playing, including (for now) Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, Marshal Yanda, Earl Thomas and Brandon Williams. That pretty much makes their explosive offense the limited equal of the Steelers. Robert Griffin III will be handing off often to Gus Edwards and Justice Hill against a tough front and with lesser Baltimore blocking. Devlin Hodges needs to play again for Pittsburgh with Mason Rudolph shelved, and the Steelers likely will be down James Conner and Maurkice Pouncey. That makes the under feel like the only good bet. Guess we’ll go with the Ravens to take pride in winning their home finale and keeping their rivals out of the playoffs.
Pick: Ravens win 20-17.
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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-10 1/2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Dwayne Haskins won’t be playing to end his rookie season, which really showed his promise during the stretch run. Case Keenum goes back to starting and won’t be afraid to fling the ball downfield against a suddenly struggling Cowboys pass defense. Dak Prescott, however, will operate back at home against a depleted defense against which he and Ezekiel Elliott can deliver chunk plays. The Cowboys will survive their rematch with rivals, unlike the Eagles, to get into the playoffs and extend Jason Garrett’s stay.
Pick: Cowboys win 34-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Tennessee Titans (-4 1/2) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Texans say they don’t plan to rest key players because they would still like the No. 3 seed over Kansas City, which makes sense because they would rather play a weak wild card such as Pittsburgh, Oakland or this same Tennessee team rather than physical Buffalo. But they also don’t want to go all out to risk injury and don’t want to show too much in a second game with the Titans, given there might be a third. That makes this game tough to predict, too, so let’s split the difference, especially with the Titans set to get Derrick Henry back closer to full strength after resting his hamstring. The Titans will do what they need to do to set up a playoff rematch with the Chiefs.
Pick: Titans win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Let’s work under the assumption the Cardinals won’t risk further injury to a hamstrung Kyler Murray. The race is tight on whether he or Josh Jacobs will win rookie of the year, but Arizona shouldn’t compromise the future of its franchise quarterback for one extra game to pad his stats. Beyond that, the Rams’ offense is firing on all cylinders again and ripped apart the Cards in the first meeting. Sean McVay’s team is frustrated about its failed NFC title defense and will take it out here.
Pick: Rams win 34-17 and cover the spread.
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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3 1/2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Raiders know there’s a chance for an AFC wild-card berth. Winning is the first part of the equation, and that won’t be easy with the Broncos playing well around with rookie second-round QB Drew Lock, who is providing a major spark with his fearless downfield passing. Oakland isn’t as good in tough road environments in the elements, and Lock’s receivers can burn the Raiders’ secondary all day. Derek Carr will be under more pressure to make the key mistakes instead of Lock. Denver will avenge its Week 1 loss in the finale.
Pick: Broncos win 24-16 and cover the spread.
Indianapolis Colts (-3 1/2) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts are a power running team at heart and had no trouble pounding away on the Panthers’ weak run defense last week. There’s no need to deviate from that game plan with Marlon Mack, Jordadn Wilkins and some Jacoby Brissett against the Jaguars’ weakened front and shaky linebacker corps. Frank Reich has a brighter future after his non-playoff hiccup this season, while this might be the end of the line for Jaguars counterpart Doug Marrone, just two years removed from his team making an AFC championship game run.
Pick: Colts win 27-17 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week:
Week 16 record straight up: 11-5
Week 16 record against the spread: 10-6
Season record straight up: 158-80
Season record against the spread: 126-104
Upsets of the Week: 8-7
Locks of the Week: 9-7
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