When the Bears (5-6) travel to face the Lions (3-7-1) to open the NFL Thanksgiving game schedule on Thursday (12:30 p.m. ET, Fox), the NFC North rivals will be playing mostly for pride with no playoff berth in sight for either team in 2019.
Chicago will keep starting Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, while Detroit, with Matthew Stafford still injured, will have undrafted rookie David Blough start in the second game of the season series, repalcing backup Jeff Driskel, who started in the first but is out with a hamstring injury. When the teams met in Solider Field in Week 10, the Bears overcame a slow start to win 20-13.
How might the rematch in Week 13 play out in Ford Field?
Here’s everything to know about betting on Bears vs. Lions in Week 13, including updated odds, trends and our expert’s prediction for the 2019 NFL Thanksgiving game.
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Bears vs. Lions odds for Thanksgiving 2019
Spread: Bears by 5.5
Point total: 37
Odds: Bears -118, Lions +108
The Bears started as slight road favorites after edging the Giants last week, while the Lions are coming off a mild upset loss at the Redskins. The line jumped from Bears -2.5 when it was revealed Blough was starting instead of Driskel. The point total is tied to two struggling offenses that scored in the teens with different results in Week 12.
Bears vs. Lions all-time series
The Bears will go for the season sweep to increase their 100-75-4 advantage over the Lions. They are trying to make it four straight victories after dropping 9 of the previous 10 meetings. This is a rematch of last year’s Thanksgiving game in Detroit, won by the Bears 23-16.
Three trends to know
— 66 percent of spread bettors like the Bears. 64 percent of moneyline bettors also like the Bears.
— 69 percent of bettors like the game to go over its low point total, probably thinking the Bears, as limited as they have been, will be able to move the ball on the Lions’ defense.
— The Bears are only 3-8 against the spread this season and 3 of their 11 games also have gone under.
Three things to watch
Blough gets the start
Blough is a different type of QB from Driskel. He’s more of a traditional pocket passer with a bigger arm and he was acquired from the Browns because of his accuracy. He won’t give the Lions much as a runner, but he will take more chances throwing downfield, which could either lead to big plays for receivers or big interceptions for the Bears.
Trubisky and his confidence
Trubisky did throw two more interceptions against the Giants, but he made the big pass plays downfield when it counted to give the Bears a win. He seemed a lot more comfortable both hanging in there in the pocket and throwing and also more decisive with his running. If he plays like that again against another bad defense, Chicago should be golden.
Golladay on the holiday
The Bears have a very good secondary, but both Golladay (3 catches, 57 yards, TD) and Marvin Jones (5 catches, 77 yards) did good damage with Driskel in Chicago. The Lions will go back to struggling running the ball, so they need their talented outside wideouts to come through, led by the 6-4, 214-pound Golladay, a Chicago native.
Stat that matters
The Lions have given up on average 58 yards receiving to running backs this season and on average 13 catches for 177 yards against wide receivers. They struggled plenty against Allen Robinson, Tarik Cohen and Taylor Gabriel in the first meeting. In this meeting, they will worry about Robinson, Cohen and Anthony Miller plenty with Gabriel concussed and no viable healthy tight end options.
Bears vs. Lions prediction
Trubisky tends to pick apart bad defenses and although there might be another slow start, he’ll get into a groove with Robinson, Cohen and Miller on short-to-intermediate routes as the Lions sell out to stop the run initially. Blough will play better than expected at home and target Golladay and Jones often. But in the end, he will face plenty more heat from Khalil Mack and the Bears’ defense to thwart the mild upset bid.
Bears 24, Lions 17
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