When the Chiefs (6-4) face the Chargers (4-6) in an AFC West matchup in Mexico City on ” Monday Night Football ” (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN) to close the Week 11 NFL schedule, there are major playoff implications for both teams.
With a win, Kansas City would stay a half-game ahead of Indianapolis for the conference’s No. 3 playoff seed behind New England and Baltimore. With a loss, Kansas City drops down to No. 8, with Oakland taking the division lead and Houston holding the last wild card because of a head-to-head tiebreaker.
Los Angeles just needs a win to stay in the wild card race at this point, because a 9-7 finish won’t cut it to make the tournament for a second consecutive season.
Here’s everything to know about betting on Chiefs vs. Chargers in Week 11, including updated odds, trends and our expert’s prediction for “Monday Night Football.”
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Chiefs vs. Chargers odds for ‘Monday Night Football’
Spread: Chiefs by 5
Point total: 53.5
Odds: Chiefs -103, Chargers -107
The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point favorites, but there was too much action on their side despite them losing to the Titans last week. The Chargers are coming off a road prime-time loss to the Raiders two Thursday nights ago.
Chiefs vs. Chargers all-time series
The Chiefs hold a slim lead over their long-time rivals, 61-56-1. They lost the previous meeting at home last December, but they had won nine consecutive games in the series before that. The last home win for the Chargers in the series came in December 2013.
Three trends to know
— 62 percent of spread bettors like the Chiefs to win by a touchdown or more, but moneyline bettors are split 50-50 on the teams.
— Only 52 percent of over/under betters like the point total to go over the high number.
— The Chiefs are 5-5 against the spread this season. The total has gone over in 7 of their 10 games. The total has gone under in 7 of the Chargers’ 10 games.
Three things to watch
Patrick Mahomes healthy
Mahomes did all he could do to help the Chiefs beat the Titans, throwing for 446 yards and 3 TDs in his first game back from his knee injury. But the Chiefs’ run and end-game defense was terrible, leading to the last-gasp loss. He will need to be on point against a Chargers’ team whose strength is the edge pass rush and cornerback.
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Melvin and Austin
The Chiefs cannot stop the run. They also can’t cover backs in the passing game. Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler have been the lifeblood of the Chargers’ offense since the offensive coordinator change to Shane Steichen. The Chargers need to execute an excellent, effective ball-control game plan with Philip Rivers struggling.
Andy vs. Anthony
Andy Reid and Anthony Lynn have struggled to put together winning game plans consistently this year after their Chiefs and Chargers both went 12-4 last season. This game will likely come down to which team finishes with the better offensive play-calling in the fourth quarter.
Stat that matters
Azteca Stadium, the venue for the game, sits at an altitude of 7,200 feet. The teams are used to playing in Denver, which sits a Mile High above sea level at 5,280 feet. That should favor the team with better conditioning, better athletes and better depth, which overall is the Chiefs.
Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction
The Chargers can make things interesting with their rushing offense and pass defense which lead to a ball-control attack that also limits the big plays for Mahomes and his receivers when he’s on the field. But it’s hard to trust Rivers in a big game against a team with an underrated pass rush and secondary. The Chiefs finish a few more drives in grinding fashion and win the turnover battle to win the game.
Chiefs 34, Chargers 27