No. 1 Alabama (5-0) and No. 24 Texas A&M (3-2) return from a bye week and meet in a key SEC West matchup on Saturday at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas.
The Crimson Tide are heavy favorites again, and with Tua Tagovailoa (23 touchdowns, 0 INTs) playing even better than last season with a group of fantastic receivers that’s hard to argue against. The Aggies, meanwhile, are trying to avoid a third loss against a brutal schedule that won’t get any easier in the second half of the season. This is another chance for Kellen Mond (10 touchdowns, four interception) to shine.
The teacher-student coaching matchup between Nick Saban and Jimbo Fisher will get some attention too, but it’s on Texas A&M to use the home spotlight to make this a game. With that in mind, here’s everything you need for Saturday’s matchup between the Crimson Tide and Aggies:
MORE: Get the latest NCAA odds & betting advice at Sportsbook Review
Alabama vs. Texas A&M odds
Spread: Alabama -17
Point total: 61
Moneyline: Alabama -110, Texas A&M -110
Alabama is a 17-point favorite, according to odds at Sportsbook Review, and 55 percent of the wagering has come in favor of the Crimson Tide at this point.
Alabama vs. Texas A&M all-time series
Alabama leads the all-time series 9-2, and that includes a 4-0 record at Kyle Field. The Crimson Tide are 6-1 in matchups when both teams are ranked.
Click Here: Fjallraven Kanken Art Spring Landscape Backpacks
WEEK 7 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Three trends to know
— Johnny Manziel led Texas A&M to a 29-24 victory against Alabama in 2012. The Crimson Tide have won the last six meetings by an average of 22.2 points per game.
— Alabama has won the last three meetings at Kyle Field by an average of 11 points per game. The Crimson Tide is 3-2 against the spread in road games since Tagovailoa took over as the starter.
— The Aggies are 3-2 against the spread as an underdog under Fisher, and that includes a 1-0 record at home. That game, of course, was a 28-26 loss against Clemson last season. Can Texas A&M push Alabama to the limit in the same fashion?
MORE: Week 7’s biggest prove-it games
Three things to watch
Texas A&M’s pass defense
The Aggies have been good against the pass this season with a unit that allows just 191.4 yards per game while allowing just five touchdowns and pulling down six interceptions. Tagovailoa was 22 of 30 for 387 yards and four touchdowns in last year’s meeting. If it’s that easy again, then this game won’t be close in the fourth quarter.
Alabama’s distribution
The key to last year’s victory was Tagovailoa had four different receivers with at least 50 yards. Three of those players — Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith and Henry Ruggs III — are back, and they’ve combined for 1,386 yards and 18 touchdowns this season. Jaylen Waddle also must be accounted for, too. The Aggies have also been good against the run (108.4 ypg), but they’ll have to be even better to force Alabama into third-and-long situations.
Kellen Mond
Mond needs to be a factor in the running game. He’s 55 of 91 for 571 yards in the losses to Clemson and Auburn, an average of 6.3 yards per attempt. That won’t be good enough against Alabama. He had one rushing yard against Clemson and 26 yards against Auburn, defenses that did a good job of limiting Texas A&M’s chunk plays. If Mond wants to get into Manziel mode against Alabama, then he’ll have to scramble and make some improvisational plays along the way.
Stat that matters
Red-zone offense and defense is big in this game. Alabama is converting 90 percent of its red-zone trips into points, includes 15 touchdowns in 20 attempts. Texas A&M has 15 touchdowns in 26 red zone trips, and adding seven field goals. Alabama has allowed just 11 red-zone attempts, while Texas A&M is at 12. Both teams need to make those opportunities count.
MORE: SN Week 7 college football rankings
Alabama vs. Texas A&M prediction
Texas A&M will pull out all the stops for this one, and the key will be keeping it reasonable at halftime. The Aggies trailed Clemson 14-3 last year before making it interesting in the second half. On the other hand, they trailed Alabama 31-13. It’s about not getting buried by the Tagovailoa onslaught. We’ll see what Texas A&M learned from last year, but ultimately the Crimson Tide’s arsenal of receivers is too much to handle.
Alabama 42, Texas A&M 20