The Red River Rivalry is here, and the stakes are high as usual at the Texas State Fair.
No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0) meets No. 11 Texas (4-1) in the classic Big 12 rivalry at noon in the Cotton Bowl. Both offenses average more than 40 points per game, so another high-scoring affair is in the works.
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The Sooners’ offense continues to roll around Alabama transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts, one of the leaders in the Heisman Trophy race. The Longhorns can’t afford a second loss this season, and Sam Ehlinger will look to win this game in the regular season for the second straight year. The latest installment of the coaching matchup between Lincoln Riley and Tom Herman should be good, too.
With that in mind, here’s everything you need for Sooners vs. Longhorns, including updated betting odds, trends, and our prediction.
MORE: Get the latest NCAA odds & betting advice at Sportsbook Review
Texas vs. Oklahoma odds
Spread: Oklahoma -11
Point total: 75
Moneyline: Oklahoma -110, Texas -110
Oklahoma is a 11-point favorite according to odds at Sportsbook Review, but 60 percent of the wagering has come in favor of the Longhorns at this point.
Texas vs. Oklahoma all-time series
Texas leads the all-time series 62-47-5, but the Sooners won the last meeting at the Big 12 championship 39-27. The Sooners are 21-16-3 in the Red River Rivalry when both teams are ranked.
Three trends to know
— The last five regular-season matchups between the Sooners and Longhorns have been decided by an average of five points per game.
— Texas is 9-3-1 against the spread against ranked opponents under Herman. The Longhorns are 8-3-1 against the spread as underdogs in the same stretch.
— Oklahoma is 6-2-1 against the spread against ranked opponents under Riley. The Sooners are 14-14-1 as favorites in the same stretch.
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Three things to watch
Jalen Hurts
Hurts is the Heisman frontrunner, and with good reason. He has an FBS-best 231.3 passer efficiency rating, and he’s piling on yards (1,523) and touchdowns (14) while completing 75.2 percent of his passes. He also has 499 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Hurts split two Iron Bowl starts during his time at Alabama, and on Monday he said that experience should help in another big game.
Ehlinger’s legs
Sam Ehlinger brings it in the Red River Rivalry. He might be 1-1 as a starter, but he has averaged 296 passing yards, 89 rushing yards and scored seven total touchdowns with no interceptions. On one hand, that improves Texas’ chances; Oo the other, what more can he do in this game? He averages 20.5 carries per game in those meetings, which is more than the 10.2 carries he averages in 2019.
Who throws more picks?
Texas has battled injuries in the secondary, but the Longhorns still have nine interceptions and 20 passes breakups this season. That’s better than Oklahoma, which has four picks and 15 passes breakups. Can the Longhorns rattle Hurts with a few turnovers and steal a possession or two? That’s something to keep a close watch on.
Stat that matters: 12 yards
In the last three meetings with Herman and Riley at the helm, the Sooners (1,050 total yards) and Longhorns (929 yards) have been separated by just 121 yards of offense. The Sooners (644 ypg) and Longhorns (484 ypg) are going to make big plays on offense, and it’s about the team that handles the swings and the sudden changes.
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Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction
Oklahoma has outscored opponents 62-7 in the first quarter, whereas Texas is only outscoring opponents 28-13. Look for Hurts to get off to a hot start and the Sooners take an early double-digit lead. Ehlinger, however, will rally the Longhorns to create a magnificent back and forth. In the end, the tandem of Oklahoma receivers CeeDee Lamb and Charleston Rambo — who combine to average 25.5 yards per catch — make too many big plays in the passing game. Oklahoma takes control of the Big 12 race.
Oklahoma 41, Texas 34