Last week was rough for NFL picks with several underdogs prevailing, but we were careful with most of the favorites and ended up looking strong against the spread. Now it’s time to get back on track straight up.
The good news is Week 6 brings two fewer games on the schedule with four teams (Bills, Bears, Colts and Raiders) on bye weeks. So that’s a little less to get wrong, but also a little less to get right.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds at Sportsbook Review
Here’s taking our shots, navigating through a few more big numbers and several more toss-up games.
Week 6 NFL picks against the spread
Game of the Week: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-4 1/2, -110)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Rams are coming off a mini-bye after their Thursday night game in Week 5, and the 49ers have a short week turnaround on the road. The Rams are battling through a rare two-game losing streak with Sean McVay, and they should clean up a lot of their issues defensively while also finding ways to be more dynamic and balanced offensively. This will be a good duel between McVay and Kyle Shanahan, but the slight advantage at home goes to one JG (Jared Goff) over the other (Jimmy Garoppolo).
Pick: Rams win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Game of the Midweek: New York Giants at New England Patriots (-17 1/2, +100)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video
The Giants might get Saquon Barkley back for this game, and that would be a boost to Daniel Jones. The problem is their matchups against the Patriots’ defense aren’t good, and New York will be dependent on mostly chunk plays with Barkley to move the ball. Tom Brady, meanwhile, can go to work against another awful secondary and put Jones in an uncomfortable catch-up position.
Pick: Patriots win 34-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles (+3, -115) over Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Vikings almost blew a big lead but were able to win in Philadelphia last season. The Eagles will return the favor in Minneapolis. Both teams can stop the run, so it comes down to which quarterback, Carson Wentz or Kirk Cousins, can distribute the ball under some heat without committing turnovers. Cousins will hit on some big plays against the Eagles’ secondary, but Wentz will be a little more versatile as the Eagles play the better ball-control game.
Pick: Eagles win 24-23.
Lock of the Week: Baltimore Ravens (-12 1/2, +108) over Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens are a run-first team with Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram and their complementary backs. Their passing game is off, and rookie wide receiver Marquise Brown is hurting. They won’t get cute here; they instead will just pound away against a Bengals defense that can’t stop anything on the ground. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is trying to keep things together with the offensive firepower they have left, but there’s no reason to think they will keep a division road game close.
Pick: Ravens win 33-16 and cover the spread.
Carolina Panthers (-2 1/2, -115) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
The Panthers have won three consecutive games since Cam Newton struggled against the Bucs at home in Week 2. Kyle Allen has played OK, but he is being buoyed by the running of Christian McCaffrey and the defense, two things that didn’t work for Carolina in its first meeting with Tampa Bay. Nobody knows what the Bucs will get from Jameis Winston, and their pass-happy offense (and improved defense) is getting harder to figure out, too. The Panthers are the more known quantity on a neutral field, and that’s where the trust should lie.
Pick: Panthers win 23-20 and cover the spread.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-5 1/2, -110)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chiefs are no longer undefeated, and their offense cooled down last week thanks to the combination of a banged-up Patrick Mahomes, a suddenly shaky offensive line and no commitment to the running game. Mahomes, however, will get revved back up for a shootout with 2017 first-round draft mate Deshaun Watson, knowing he’ll likely get a big-play reinforcement in Tyreek Hill. Watson and Mahomes will take turns lighting it up, but the Chiefs will be better positioned to pull away in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Chiefs win 34-27 and cover the spread.
New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (pick ’em)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
One can expect this game to feature a lot of Saints fans who made the relatively short 8-hour drive straight down I-10 to try to help their team get to 4-0 with Teddy Bridgewater starting for Drew Brees. Bridgewater also will have some local support back in his home state, balancing out the magic that comes with Gardner Minshew playing in Jacksonville. Look for the Saints to get it done, per usual with plenty of Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas and more swarming defense to complement them.
Pick: Saints win 26-20 and cover the spread.
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (-1, -125)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Russell Wilson is a road warrior and is playing lights out, mostly avoiding big sacks as well as turnovers. The Seahawks also can stay committed to the run in this game to keep pressure off the QB. Their defense will give up its share of big pass plays to Baker Mayfield, but it also can disrupt the Browns’ offense in key situations with Jadeveon Clowney. It will be harder for Myles Garrett to throw off Wilson.
Pick: Seahawks win 24-20.
Washington Redskins (-3 1/2, -110) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Redskins will be fired up to deliver their first win of the season for interim coach Bill Callahan. At the same time, the Dolphins will come out flying after their bye week knowing this is their chance to crack the goose egg, too. Washington still has superior talent, and if the visitors protect the ball with more commitment to the run, they can win a low-scoring game by a field goal.
Pick: Redskins win 19-16 but fail to cover the spread.
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (pick ’em)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Falcons are in a bad state with Dan Quinn’s defense, but in this game, all the hard work Matt Ryan is doing will pay off. The QB gets to throw to Julio Jones with no worries about Patrick Peterson, who is serving the final game of his six-week suspension. The Cardinals have been a spread-it-out offense, and Kyler Murray’s running can cause issues, but they don’t have a big-play offense. Their playing fast will only help the Falcons’ passing game put up digits.
Pick: Falcons win 31-27.
Dallas Cowboys (-10, +110) at New York Jets
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Cowboys saw their level of competition increase over the last two weekrs, and they weren’t up to the task against the Saints or the Packers. But this can be their get-well game against a mess of a defense and limited offense. Dak Prescott will break out of his slump with a clean passing game, and Ezekiel Elliott finally will feed off a high volume of touches. Le’Veon Bell is the only player the Jets can get going in . this game, but he won’t provide enough to make much of a difference.
Pick: Cowboys win 38-13 and cover the spread.
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-1, -125)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Titans are 2-1 on the road and 0-2 at home. They are the more talented defensive team with the better chance for running success with Derrick Henry. Joe Flacco has the better weapons overall, but it’s a wash between him and Marcus Mariota in terms of mediocre QB play. Go with Tennessee off a bad loss vs. Denver off an ugly win.
Pick: Titans win 23-20.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, +110)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Steelers might need to start undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges after seeing Mason Rudolph go down with a scary concussion. One can anticipate the Steelers, then, to go run-heavy with James Conner and the related Jaylen Samuels wrinkles to attack the Chargers’ defensive weakness. The issue will be when the Chargers move the ball and finish drives, which they didn’t do against the Broncos, and eventually force Hodges (or Rudolph) to throw more against their edge rush and secondary.
Pick: Chargers win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4 1/2, -110)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Packers are featured in a prime-time game for the third time this season, adding a Monday night to their two Thursday night appearances. They’ll fare better than they did against the Eagles with the chance to go 3-0 in the NFC North and start pulling away in the division. This will likely turn into a game of Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford trading pass plays all over the field, but the Packers’ improved defense is a little better equipped than the Lions’ unit to counter.
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Pick: Packers win 30-23 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week:
Week 5 record straight up: 6-8
Week 5 record against the spread: 9-4
Season record straight up: 51-25
Season record against the spread: 43-29
Upsets of the Week: 4-1
Locks of the Week: 3-2