Gennadiy Golovkin (39-1-1, 35 KOs) looks to once again become a middleweight champion when he meets Sergiy Derevyanchenko (13-1, 10 KOs) for the vacant IBF middleweight championship at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
SN takes a closer look at the betting angles for the fight, including updated odds and our picks to win.
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GGG vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko odds
Opening odds: Golovkin -400, Derevyanchenko +365
Sportsbooks have installed Golovkin as a sizable favorite, according to Sportsbook Review’s composite odds. The logical theory is that oddsmakers are looking at Golovkin as the better fighter taken on a higher quality of opposition.
The former unified middleweight champion is currently listed at -465, which means you’d need to wager $465 to win $100. Derevyanchenko is +370, meaning you’d net $370 if you bet $100.
The odds have risen slightly for Golovkin, who opened as a -400 favorite. Odds for “GGG” went up to -500 on two occasions before settling appearing to settle in. Derevyanchenko odds have fluctuated in the same timeframe; they were initially at plus +365, went high to as much as +400 but like Golovkin those odds are holding steady for the time being.
More bettors are putting money on Derevyanchenko, which isn’t surprising. Expect that to continue as the fight inches closer.
MORE: Get the latest boxing odds at Sportsbook Review
Gennady Golovkin vs. Derevyanchenko trends to know
In their last fights, Golovkin (39-1-1, 35 KOs) rebounded from the first loss of his career to Saul ‘Canelo” Alvarez in September 2018 to notch a fourth-round knockout of Steve Rolls in June.
Derevyanchenko (13-1, 10 KOs) competes for the IBF strap for the second time. In October 2018, the Ukrainian came up just short, losing a split-decision to Daniel Jacobs. He rebounded in April with a unanimous-decision victory over Jack Culcay.
Alvarez beat Jacobs in May by unanimous decision to win the IBF title. The prevailing thought had been he would take on Golovkin in a trilogy fight. However, Alvarez refused as he felt his fierce rival had done enough to warrant one. Derevyanchenko was the top contender to face Alvarez, and the sanctioning body ordered a purse bid. The fight teams entered negotiations. A couple of extensions were granted at the request of Alvarez’s promotional team at Golden Boy Promotions, but an agreement failed to materialize.
Because of that, Alvarez was stripped of the IBF belt. Golovkin was the No. 2 contender, so conversations began between GGG and Derevyanchenko’s team. Talks went longer than expected, but finally, terms were agreed upon, and the fight was on.
The biggest question heading into He Saturday is whether Golovkin can stay active throughout. In the Alvarez fights, Golovkin was content on pumping the jab and doing little else. New trainer Johnathon Banks wants his pupil to break from that habit and get Golovkin back to being “GGG”, which is a heavy volume puncher who would wear his opponents down and then put them away.
Derevyanchenko, a 2008 Olympian, has made it look easy so far in his career. Beyond Jacobs, the 33-year-old has faced what can be classified as mediocre at best. After the Jacobs fight, Derevyanchenko looked lackluster against Cucay. Maybe it was hard for him to get up for Cucay due to the result of the Jacobs fight. He should have no difficulties getting up for one of the best middleweights in the last 25 years.
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GGG vs. Derevyanchenko expert pick, prediction
This is Golovkin’s fight to lose. He is better in every facet of the game. When he wants to box, he can go technical, and when Golovkin wants to overpower his foe, he can do it.
If you’re going to bet on GGG, do it with a bit of caution. Remember, Golovkin is 37, and at this stage, you are closer to the end than your prime. Age didn’t Golovkin against Rolls, but Derevyanchenko is a higher quality opponent. Golovkin has to keep up the output and not let Derevyanchenko get going because he is susceptible to getting dropped as Jacobs put him down in the first round of their fight.
Derevyanchenko has to come like the Energizer Bunny and take the foot off the gas pedal. Doing so will test how good Golovkin’s cardio still is. Golovkin likes fighting on his terms and causing that unrest could expose him to situations he isn’t used to being in. Derevyanchenko is better than what the odds are saying. He has a great chance to win. All he’s got to is keep up a frenetic pace, get on the inside and go to work. But with the snap of his fingers, Golovkin can make it lights out and put Derevyanchenko away.
It’s going to come to who can establish a higher work rate from the outset. If Golovkin wants any chance to get a trilogy with Alvarez, it’s imperative he comes out and puts on a “Big Drama Show”. I feel Golovkin is going to come out with a purpose and the moment of the bright lights of MSG and Golovkin raining down one hard blow after another is going to be too much for Derevyanchenko to overcome.
If you have an itch that needs to be scratched then put a decent size wager on Derevyanchenko. If you need bragging rights or just to say you won a bet then go with “GGG”.
SN’s pick: Golovkin by seventh-round TKO