Sporting News rolls right along into Week 6 of the college football season with an interesting slate of games that feature standout defenses, chances at redemption … and the opportunity for one or two blowouts.
The headliners this week include top-25 matchups between No. 25 Michigan State at No. 5 Ohio State, No. 14 Iowa and No. 19 Michigan and No. 7 Auburn and No. 10 Florida. Other games to key in on include an AAC matchup between one-loss UCF and Cincinnati and Utah State at LSU (seriously).
MORE: SN’s Week 6 college football rankings
Sporting News is 25-7 through four weeks of picks this season, including a cool 7-1 mark in Week 5. We’ll look to keep that rolling with another solid week.
SN’s picks ahead of the Week 6 slate of games (odds provided courtesy of Sportsbook Review as of 4 p.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 30):
No. 18 UCF (-4.5) at Cincinnati
This game might not have Playoff implications, but the loser will fall behind in the AAC race and almost certainly be eliminated from New Year’s Day 6 consideration; expect both teams to play accordingly. It’ll be strength against strength as UCF’s second-ranked offense (569 yards per game) goes against the Bearcats’ 23rd-ranked defense (297 ypg). Knights quarterback Dillon Gabriel (1,338 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, two interceptions) will face a defense that only allows 167 yards per game through the air; he’ll need to pick his spots, but if he can limit mistakes against a defense with only five turnovers this season, he should lead the Knights to a big conference win.
Pick: UCF 34, Cincinnati 28
No. 11 Texas (-11) at West Virginia
The prospect of Oklahoma transfer quarterback Austin Kendall facing a suspect Texas secondary is more than enough to tune in for this game, but the matchup is hard to unpack. The Longhorns rank 102nd nationally in yards allowed per game (498), but had several key stops against offensive juggernaut Oklahoma State. And Kendall hasn’t exactly been a world-beater either, throwing for 871 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. Neal Brown’s team will play above its head for a quarter (or two) before Texas uses its better overall talent to put the game away after halftime.
Pick: Texas 40, West Virginia 24
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Utah State at No. 5 LSU (-26)
LSU comes into this game with a high-flying offense and a lot of confidence after rolling to a 4-0 start behind an offense that averages a nation-leading 57.8 points per game. It should be more of the same with Joe Burrow and that talented host of receivers against an Aggies team that ranks 103rd nationally in passing defense (263.5 ypg). Crazy as it sounds, this is more a test for LSU’s defense, which has twice given up 38 points this season and faces a talented Utah State team that ranks ninth nationally with 533 yards of production per game. Quarterback Jordan Love has struggled somewhat, but has the tools to make plays. The Aggies also have a pair of talented 300-yard rushers in Jaylen Warren and Gerold Bright to test LSU. The Tigers should win, and handily, but this will be a good tune-up for better competition down the road.
Pick: LSU 56, Utah State 28
No. 3 Georgia (-25.5) at Tennessee
If the Volunteers are going to turn their season around, now would be the time to do it. Tennessee comes into this game reeling after a 1-3 loss, including a 34-3 drubbing by rival Florida. In order to win this one, Tennessee will need to hold the line of scrimmage against an offense with several talented backs, including D’Andre Swift, Brien Herrien, Zamir White and Kenny McIntosh. Unfortunately for the Vols, they haven’t shown an ability to do that so far this season, ranking 66th nationally in rush defense (149.8 ypg). Look for Georgia’s running game to dominate and for Jake Fromm to turn in a quick, efficient day at the office.
Pick: Georgia 42, Tennessee 14
MORE: Week 6 Playoff picture
Cal at No. 13 Oregon (-18)
A matchup that many may have dismissed at the start of the season suddenly looks like a season-impacting game for the Pac-12. Justin Herbert and Oregon have rebounded nicely since the loss to Auburn, and now face a 4-1 Cal team that has played well against tough competition. Herbert will have to beware a secondary that has limited quarterbacks, and Chase Garbers could be a big X-factor if he’s able to suit up. That said, we still think Herbert and Co. will be able to make enough plays to keep the Ducks’ Playoff hopes alive.
Pick: Oregon 28, Cal 20
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No. 14 Iowa at No. 19 Michigan (-4)
Michigan has a chance for a significant rebound win against a good Iowa team on Saturday. The Hawkeyes have earned their 4-0 record with mistake-free football, committing only one turnover through a third of the season; Nate Stanley isn’t flashy, but has eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Hawkeyes defense is stout as well, ranking fifth in total defense (251 ypg) and third in scoring defense (8.5 ppg). This game really depends on whether Shea Patterson can build off his big game against Rutgers and continue developing in Josh Gattis’ offense. Iowa has won each of the last two meetings against the Wolverines by a combined four points. We think it’s another one-possession game, but we’ll go with a Wolverines team that’s out to prove something after its humiliating loss to Wisconsin.
Pick: Michigan 24, Iowa 20
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No. 25 Michigan State at No. 4 Ohio State (-20)
The Buckeyes face their first real test of the season against a Michigan State defense that ranks among the nation’s best. The Spartans rank seventh in total defense (254 ypg), fourth in rush defense (55.8 ypg) and 14th in scoring defense (15 ppg). If there’s one area this Buckeyes offense can exploit, however, it’s Michigan State’s pass defense, which has allowed 198 yards through the air per game and six touchdowns on the season. The Spartans will play tough against the run to limit J.K. Dobbins and Justin Fields’ big-play ability, so it’s on Fields (1,092 yards, 16 touchdowns, no interceptions) to make plays through the air. He’s more than capable of doing that. The real question is whether Michigan State’s Brian Lewerke (1,325 yards, 10 touchdowns, one interception), Elijah Collins (413 yards, three touchdowns) and Darrell Stewart Jr. (556 yards, three touchdowns) can score enough points against an Ohio State defense that looks better than it has in years.
Pick: Ohio State 34, Michigan State 17
No. 7 Auburn (-3) at No. 10 Florida
The “College GameDay” game of the week features a pair of top-10 SEC opponents with fantastic defenses. Florida boasts seven players (headlined by Jabari Zuniga and Jonathan Greenard) with multiple sacks, and another 10 with at least a share of another to tally 24 for the season (good for second nationally). The Tigers might not get to the quarterback as often, but they have a defensive front to rival any in college football. The lineup of Tyrone Truesdell, Marlon Davidson, Derrick Brown and Big Kat Bryant and Nick Coe have combined for nine sacks and 16 tackles for loss. This one should come down to which offense can make more plays — and fewer mistakes — against the opposing defense. In that, we will have to go with Gus Malzahn and Auburn, whose domination of Kent State, Texas A&M and Mississippi State the last three weeks have us thinking of them as true Playoff contenders.
Pick: Auburn 35, Florida 24