There are 87 underclassmen who are expected to be on the official early entry list for the NBA Draft when it is released a little more than a week before selections are made.
There are 10 college seniors and seven international prospects projected to be chosen in the two-round draft, according to ESPN.com.
That leaves 43 or so spots in the draft to accommodate those 87 guys. Fewer than half are likely to be selected. It’s the kind of math that maybe some of those who left college with eligibility remaining might have wanted to cover while still in school.
A lot of people were exaggerating RJ Hampton’s decision to play professionally in the Australian NBL as the beginning of a trend for top prospects, but the real contagion is the number of top players who aren’t likely to be drafted who nonetheless are turning pro with eligibility remaining.
MORE: R.J. Hampton didn’t make history by passing on college – he merely skipped it
Some of these players might wind up making teams. Some might find jobs on two-way contracts. Some might wind up overseas. So many of them – not Zion Williamson or Ja Morant or RJ Barrett, obviously – are choosing the hard way into the league, the way that ultimately might cost them a significant amount of money.
These are the guys who missed a chance to enter the NBA in style:
Louis King, forward, Oregon. This is the one that absolutely makes the least sense. King is a legit talent, someone whose skill, height and length could make him a dominant college player as a sophomore. And he’s playing for one of the great college coaches, someone who’ll put him in position to excel.
Even in a balky freshman season, King averaged 13.5 points and 5.5 rebounds and shot 38.6 percent from 3-point range. Anyone who tells you a player can’t improve his draft position by excelling as a sophomore or junior is lying; Ja Morant, De’Andre Hunter, Jared Culver and PJ Washington all are likely lottery picks.
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ESPN’s two-round mock draft projects King to go off the board at No. 35 in this year’s draft.
That’s at least 20 spots lower than his talent dictates. Anyone who tells you the NBA drafts strictly on potential is ignoring this reality.
Zach Norvell, shooting guard, Gonzaga. It’s hard to understand what Norvell is thinking. Gonzaga has lost early entrants before, but almost exclusively to excellent draft positions: Adam Morrison at No. 3 overall in 2006, Zach Collins at No. 10 in 2017 and Brandon Clarke and Rui Hachimura expected to be first-round picks this year.
He shot 37 percent on 97 makes as a sophomore. With his size and a slight improvement in his consistency, he would have made a solid first-round prospect after next season. He also would have had the opportunity to be the Zags’ primary star, which obviously has worked out well for other former Bulldogs.
Jordan Bone, point guard, Tennessee. Sporting News projected Bone would make a significant leap as a junior, and that’s exactly what happened, and it’s the biggest reason the Vols advanced from really good SEC champion in 2017-18 to national title contender in 2019. He averaged 13.8 points and 5.8 assists. Some might think if he returns to a team without Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield his appeal to the pros could take a hit. More likely, his star would have shone even brighter and the first round would have come into range in 2020.
If Bone squeezes into the first round, he wins, but that doesn’t seem to be anyone’s projection at this point.
Jordan Poole, shooting guard, Michigan. We’ve gone over Poole’s decision on Twitter and mentioned the impact of his departure on John Beilein’s decision to accept the Cleveland Cavaliers’ job.
Poole, like Norvell, has great size for his position but is underdeveloped as a ballhandler and not yet as precise with his shooting as he can be. Poole hit 36.9 percent from deep as a sophomore on 75 makes. There’s so much better basketball in him, and it is entirely possible he could have become a first-round pick if he’d returned and at least flirted with the kind of accuracy Cameron Johnson managed last season at North Carolina.
Think 45.7 percent is out of Poole’s reach? Perhaps. But a year ago, Johnson was at 34.1 percent. He got better, and he went from nowhere to a potential top-20 prospect.
Brandon Randolph, shooting guard, Arizona. Why would anyone try to ride the worst season in his program’s recent history to a draft position? The Wildcats were generationally bad in 2018-19, and Randolph was hard to miss in all those defeats.
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No doubt it wasn’t fun, but with two top recruits entering, Randolph had a chance to be featured on a team that should completely reverse last year’s failure. Arizona wasn’t surprised by his departure and has recruited several players at the wing positions.
But a dozen points per game and sub-30 percent shooting from deep is not getting a wing player picked by the NBA.
Kenny Wooten, power forward, Oregon. The player to whom Wooten was most often compared – at least in terms of, “If he works, he can be this” – was former Ducks big man Jordan Bell, now a rotational player for reigning NBA champion Golden State.
Bell played 105 games at Oregon and averaged 10.9 points and 8.8 rebounds for a Final Four team in 2017.
Wooten played 70 games and, in 2018-19, averaged 6.3 points and 4.8 rebounds for a Sweet 16 team.
Those two lines are not comparable.
Moses Brown, center, UCLA. He wasn’t even ready to play in college.